The number of homes sold is a mixed bag with lower value markets gaining over last year with Northwest Michigan showing the steepest decline. However, in all markets home values are still declining and we can expect that trend to continue through the end of next year as well. On average the rate of value decline is running around 1% per month.
The Northwest Michigan/Traverse City market is showing a steeper sale unit decline which should begin to narrow next year. Because of a stronger base economy their recovery will be faster so the entire state should wind up at the same spot by the end of 2009. It is interesting to note that although the market is slowing in Northern Michigan, so far home values there have shown the most stability.
How will the auto changes and specifically the GM change affect our market? With over 60,000 homes currently available for sale in Southeast Michigan, the 2,400 or so reductions will not have a major impact except in markets with high GM employment. In the short run the buyer pool may contract until the employees of GM and their suppliers know who is going and staying. What this means to Seller’s is they may need to be more aggressive in pricing if they want to generate a sale by the end of the year.
What is the best overall advice for Sellers for the balance of the year? It is the same as the first half. Focus on being one of the top 5 best priced homes in your competitive range. We will not be moving out of a buyer’s market for at least 24 months so price aggressively enough to more than match the market value declines. Distressed sales are your value benchmark (you don’t have to match the value of the poor conditioned foreclosure down the street, but you do need to move toward it). On average the spread between the foreclosure and non-foreclosure sales prices are running about 20%, but that does vary quite a bit depending of the condition of the homes.
For Buyers, move now! Every indicator says interest rates are going to rise over the next 12 months. Any gain by waiting for the price to drop will be lost in higher interest rates.
